(3.46 p.m.) MAURITIUS – STATE OF THE ECONOMY

Thank you, Madam Speaker. With your permission, I would like to make a Statement with regard to the State of the Economy. I will, of course, be tabling the document afterwards. Madam Speaker, it is with great concern that I present the document to the House and to the nation. I say great concern because the previous government has left us an economy which is in an unprecedented state of precariousness. The legacy of the previous government is disastrous, to say the least. And the nation will be appalled when they take cognisance of the way the previous government has dilapidated the finances of our country. It is shocking, Madam Speaker! They have fumbled and jumbled all the macroeconomic fundamentals. The damages done to our socioeconomic and environmental fabric defy description. Madam Speaker, let me start with the macroeconomic fundamentals. Firstly, they have grossly exaggerated the GDP growth rates to fool the population into believing that there is an economic boom. There is no such economic boom! In fact, it is the very opposite of what they have said. It is now obvious that this was but a very dangerous political gimmick that eventually sealed their fate. A reassessment of the National Accounts by Statistics Mauritius has resulted in a downward revision in GDP figures for every year since 2022. These downward revisions were more pronounced in 2023 and 2024. The nominal GDP for 2023 has been reduced by close to Rs22 billion – R 22 milliards, Madame la présidente – compared to data published in September 2024. Therefore, in real terms, the downward revision is 1.4%, which is a lot. Similarly, the forecast for nominal GDP for 2024 has been reduced by more than Rs36 billion. R 36 millards! I do not know if hon. Members realise what all these figures mean. To arrive at these inflated figures, it appears that the growth of the construction industry in particular was deliberately overestimated. Indeed, the new assessment by Statistics Mauritius indicates that the GDP growth was deliberately exaggerated by intimating that the construction industry would grow by 37.4% in 2023 and 38.8% in 2024, as published in September 2024. These figures were manifestly overstated – I am putting it mildly! Statistics Mauritius has significantly lowered these growth rates to 21.3% and 25%, respectively. The previous government, Madam Speaker, has been boasting of high GDP growth rates in recent years. Let me stress that these GDP growth rates reflect the normal process of post-COVID recovery and in no way reflect any kind of new dynamism in the economy. In fact, Mauritius has taken more time than its peers to recover from the COVID-related recession. In 2023, the GDP in US dollars for Mauritius was still below its pre-pandemic level. Secondly, investment in our economy has been on a declining trend as a percentage of GDP during the past ten years. Madam Speaker, one does not need to have a ‘Doctorat de la Sorbonne’ to know that low investment means low growth. Any O-Level student on Economics knows that, Madam Speaker! Yet, what do we see? The average annual investment rate has declined from 21.9% during 2010-2014 to 18.5% during the period 2015-2023. The average annual private investment rate over the same period has also declined significantly from 16.6% to 14.1%. In a country where more than 80% of wealth is generated by private enterprises, this low private investment must be very worrying. The situation has been caused mostly by visible deterioration in the public/private sector partnership. It is unthinkable how a government can destroy one of the most important institutional strengths in our country’s economic development. Madam Speaker, this core strength has to be restored. Thirdly, the trends in our external sector, that is, imports and exports and the balance of payments, have also been worsened by the pathetic mismanagement of the previous government. The yearly average export of goods as a percentage of GDP has declined from 22.9% during the period 2010-2014 to 17.4% during the period 2015 to 2023. On the other hand, the consumption-driven growth, that is, the model of the previous government, has sharply increased imports. As a result, both the trends in trade and current accounts of the balance of payments have deteriorated and are a source of great concern. In fact, the overall balance of payments, which has traditionally been in surplus, has registered deficits in the last two years. It is no wonder, no wonder at all, that there is a severe shortage of foreign currency on the market and that there is pressure on the rupee to depreciate. Fourth, related to the fast depreciation of the rupee is the surge in the level of prices. Over the period 2022 to 2024, cumulative inflation in Mauritius was 23%. Our record on inflation has been one of the worst when compared to other peer nations. This signals a total failure of monetary policy and exchange rate management. While we were cumulating an inflation rate of 23 percent, Seychelles, our neighbour next to us, had an inflation rate of only 2.4 percent. 23 percent compared to 2.4 percent! Madam Speaker, as we all know, the poor spend a greater share of their income on food. Prices of food items have increased at a much higher rate than the average inflation rate. Cumulative food price inflation over the period 2022 to 2024 is more than 33 percent compared to the inflation rate of 23 percent. In other words, the food inflation has been much more. Therefore, it is no wonder that people have been complaining about the constant rise in the price of food items, but the former Minister of Finance and the former Prime Minister did not seem to care! They did not bother about it. Ils ont fait la sourde oreille. After all, it did not affect them! Fifth, the previous Government had one of the worst records in terms of employment creation and labour market development. The employment level in 2023 was lower than in 2019. The low employment rate combined with other major weaknesses in the labour market has become a severe impediment to economic growth. For example, around 23 percent of the labour force was underutilised in 2023, which includes skills-related and time-related underemployment. Moreover, only about 20 percent of our labour force has post-secondary education. There is a persistent skills mismatch in the labour market, and employers keep complaining about labour shortages in spite of the relatively high unemployment rate. Madam Speaker, our predicament does not end here. Sixth, the state of public finances has never been as disastrous and shaky as it is now. The previous Government has literally dilapidated all the fiscal space of this country. There is absolutely no room for manoeuvre. This is the legacy of the previous Government. They have practiced a policy of “terre brûlée”. As the French saying goes, Madam Speaker – « Après moi, le déluge. » The budget deficit and the public sector debt figures were largely understated. They are, in fact, much higher than the population was made to believe. As regards the budget deficit for the fiscal year 2023-2024, revenue was overestimated by Rs13.8 billion. Rs13.8 billion! This was done to deliberately reduce the deficit. Yes, Rs13.8 billion! And after thorough analysis of the figures, the actual budget deficit for 2023-2024 turned out to be much higher at 5.7 percent of GDP instead of 3.9 percent. I hope people realise we are talking about percentage of high figures, and 1.8 percent means a lot. For this fiscal year, that is, 2024-2025, revenue has been overestimated by Rs16.7 billion while expenditure has been underestimated by Rs5 billion. As a result, the deficit would increase by Rs21.7 billion. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is expected to be 6.7 percent compared to the budget target, which was 3.4 percent. Even worse, Madam Speaker, the borrowing requirements of Government is going through the roof. And we know that in the present context, borrowing requirement is the most relevant indicator of sound public finances because it impacts directly on Government debt. The updated borrowing requirements of Government work out to be Rs59.6 billion instead of Rs38 billion estimated in the Budget. In other words, a difference of Rs21.6 billion, underestimated! I must point out, Madam Speaker, that these figures are on a no-policy change. We are not talking about the 14th month, fuel prices, or bonuses. This is as it is now, without any policy change. The seventh and by far the biggest blunder of the previous Government is the huge amount of debt it has accumulated through reckless expenditure on white elephant projects with obvious sinister motive of lining the pockets of the well-known cronies. Madam Speaker, I would like to point out that when I was in office in 2014, the public sector debt ratio was under 60 percent. In fact, it was 59.5 percent. Today, it is well above 80 percent! This is above the statutory limit that the previous Government itself had targeted. Updated data, in fact, shows that at the end of June 2024, the public debt ratio stood at 83.4 percent; well above 80 percent. Mauritian parents and grandparents have always seen to it that their responsibility to their children and grandchildren is to give them the best start possible in life. That is what parents and grandparents do. Yet, what has the previous Government done? It has been piling national debt on the shoulders of the newborn babies. Indeed, over the last ten years, the previous Government has added – believe it or not – Rs321 billion to public sector debt. That is an average of Rs32 billion per year, which means every newborn has a debt of about Rs500,000 as soon as he or she is born. Included in the increase in debt are – • Rs26.9 billion that the previous Government has had to pay as compensation in relation to the ex-BAI, Betamax, and Neotown cases. • Rs19.8 billion resulting from the deliberate depreciation of the rupee. Madam Speaker, our fiscal space has been totally constricted, the more so that all the Special Funds about which they would not answer questions in Parliament have been completely depleted. Besides high public sector debt, our country is saddled with significant contingent liabilities. The list is very long, but let me enumerate just five of them – (i) Metro Express is unable to meet the cost of servicing its loan. Unable! And its loan is of Rs16 billion under the Line of Credit from India. Unable to do it! (ii) The STC had a total deficit of Rs5.6 billion under the Subsidy Account and the Price Stabilisation Account. (iii) As per the Companies Act 2001, Air Mauritius is deemed to be insolvent. Yes, insolvent! They have recklessly destroyed our national pride. Insolvent! (iv) The Wastewater Management Authority is unable to pay its debts. Unable! It is already in arrears of Rs2.2 billion and it has, on top of that, outstanding loans of Rs3.5 billion. (v) The Mauritius Post Ltd, the Casinos of Mauritius, the National Property Fund, CWA, and CEB, all of them are in deep financial stress. Furthermore, the Statutory Bodies defined pension funds have an actuarial deficit of Rs47 billion. I can assure the House…

(Interruptions)

I can assure the House and the Nation… An hon. Member: Incroyable!

(Interruptions)

Yes, unbelievable! But I can assure the House, Madam Speaker, and the Nation that we will bring down the public sector debt to a more sustainable and manageable level. And we will do so not only to balance the books or fix the figures, but most importantly, to relieve our children and grandchildren from the burden of debt imposed on them by the previous Government. It is a despicable act on future generation. It is a despicable crime. Ils ont hypothéqué l’avenir de nos jeunes ! Totalement ! Madam Speaker, our endeavour to deal with the catastrophic legacy inherited from the previous government will be pursued amidst a number of challenges. The most pressing challenges are – • climate change; • demographic trends; • labour market constraints and resource repurposing; • restoring the social partnership between Government, civil society, unions, and the private sector; • educational reforms, which have already started; • social upliftment, and • institutional reconstruction. Madam Speaker, let me end by giving the assurance to the population that this Government will turn around the situation and secure a better future for all and for the next generations as well. The top of our priorities will be to implement a credible Medium Term Fiscal Consolidation Plan. Our aim is to significantly reduce debt and contingent liabilities so as to minimise the risks to our debt sustainability and ensure medium-term macroeconomic stability. We will rebuild the fiscal space while safeguarding critical social spending to protect the most vulnerable. The Plan will also be towards growth promotion. The more we produce, the more we can share. Madam Speaker, if we want to reclaim fiscal serenity, we need to aim at a primary fiscal balance and pave a pathway to a debt ratio of about 60 percent of GDP. It will be a tough challenge not only for Government but for the entire Nation. But we have done it before. We can do it again. Madam Speaker, we are not going to go it alone. We will have to work with development partners, international institutions, and friendly countries. Let me reiterate that the previous government has fumbled and jumbled the economic fundamentals. Their mismanagement of the economy and their falsifying of figures have been an unmitigated disaster for our country. It borders on criminal negligence. It borders on that! Their incompetence and irresponsibility are baffling. Difficult to understand! They have been practicing voodoo economics. That is what they have been doing – voodoo economics! And they should be made to answer for their misdeeds. We cannot just note and then let it go. No way! What they have done borders on criminal negligence. Madame la présidente, nous sommes dans une tempête financière. Il faut d’abord redresser l’économie. That is the priority. I shudder to think, Madam Speaker, what they would have done to our beloved country had the people of this country not seen through their, what we should call, malevolent actions and given them another mandate. Do you realise what would have happened? There is a God for this country. God knows! We would have had to chant, “Cry our beloved country” because this is what would have happened. They have tried not only to destroy our unity; we have seen it during the campaign. Attacks on unity! The victory is one of unity for the last elections. People showed that they wanted to be unified. It was a victory for unity. They tried to destroy not only our unity but also our institutions, our economy, and the future of our youth. Fortunately, not one of them got elected, as the people of this country in their wisdom have consigned them to the dustbin of history, Madam Speaker. My two hon. friends, I must say, are in a way elected because they got in as Best Loser. But, Madam Speaker, never, never again should anyone be allowed to destroy our country as these people have done. Never again! We will take up the challenge of tidying up the mess together as a nation, all of us together, but it will take time. Madam Speaker, there is no magic wand when you have seen the catalogue of what I have just told you; there is no magician to pull us out of this economic quagmire, but, Madam Speaker, history has taught us, ever since independence, that we have always been able to overcome the daunting challenges that we have faced as a nation. We have always done so. Today, I stand in this House with confidence that, once again, we shall be able to rise up to this mammoth task ahead of us – as one people as one nation. Thank you, Madam Speaker.

Thank you, hon. Prime Minister.

Madam Speaker, may I?

Yes!

Madam Speaker, can I raise a point of order? Because the Statement made by the hon. Prime Minister falls under the item ‘Statements by Ministers’. Normally, I know that it should not be controversial because we do not have a right to reply.

(Interruptions)

Let me…

Do I understand that now… An hon. Member: Facts hurt!

Hon. Members, let us listen and let me rule!

Yes. Do I understand that now Statement by Ministers can be controversial?

I did not hear…

(Interruptions)

Okay, let me rule, please! I did not hear the Prime Minister attack any Member of Parliament. In Standing Order 40, we have contents of speeches. It is only if he had attacked, let us say, one of you or anybody, then we could have said that it is not acceptable. I think what the Prime Minister has done here – I have been a Member here for 15 years – this has been current. So, maybe it hurts a little bit. I would suggest…

(Interruptions)

I would suggest …

(Interruptions)

May I speak, please? Of course, you cannot reply to what he is saying today. I would suggest, hon. Leader of the Opposition, that there will be other instances; maybe you will get a chance to come back on issues that have been raised. But I do not think we can condemn the Prime Minister on a point of order. So, I will not allow this point of order. Adjournment!