the Mauritian economy, he will state whether a comprehensive impact assessment thereon has been carried out…
(No. B/79) Mr R. Beechook (Second Member for Flacq & Bon Accueil) asked the Prime Minister, Minister of Defence, Home Affairs and External Communications, Minister of Finance, Minister for Rodrigues and Outer Islands whether, in regard to the Mauritian economy, he will state whether a comprehensive impact assessment thereon has been carried out should Moody’s downgrade the sovereign credit rating thereof to junk status for some reasons or the other and, if so, give details thereof.
Madam Speaker, as I have stated on several occasions, the economic mismanagement and irresponsible fiscal stewardship of the previous Government have driven our sovereign credit rating by Moody’s perilously close to junk status. The House will recall that, in June 2012, when we were in office, Moody’s upgraded our credit rating from Baa2 to Baa1 with a stable outlook. I should doubt that before the 2014 election, because we had managed the economy with prudence, public debt was 59.5% of GDP, in other words, lower than 60%, as it is in the European Union. This rating remained unchanged until April 2020, when the deterioration in macroeconomic management by the previous Government, began to raise serious concerns. There was a marked departure from prudent fiscal management that was eroding confidence in the sustainability of our public finances. Consequently, Mauritius was downgraded by Moody’s, not on one occasion, not on two occasions but on four occasions – (a) in April 2020, the outlook was changed from positive to negative; (b) in March 2021, the rating was downgraded from Baa1 to Baa2 with a negative outlook; (c) in July 2022, the rating was further downgraded to Baa3 with stable outlook, and (d) finally in January 2025, the outlook changed from stable to negative, that is, the lowest investment grade rating. Madam Speaker, simply on the quantitative aspects of the scorecard of Moody’s, we should have been downgraded to the junk status. Against this backdrop, I sent a high-level delegation to London to discuss with the top management of Moody’s to explain our economic and fiscal consolidation plan and our commitments for structural reforms. That included the pension reform which had become unsustainable as the IMF and the World Bank had been saying since the previous Government was in office but they turned a blind eye, of course to that. We avoided the downgrade with our intervention and bold fiscal consolidation measures were implemented. Madam Speaker, the consequences of a downgrade to junk status would have had incalculable and far-reaching effects such as – (a) lower investor confidence could slow down the FDI inflows or trigger capital outflows as foreign investors try to reduce their risk exposure; (b) reduced investor confidence and capital outflows would lead to a depreciation of the rupee, which would in turn, increase import costs and inflationary pressures. That is why I am surprised when the Leader of the Opposition says what he says. He does not seem to realise what they have done; the economic crime they have committed against this country; (c) reduced investments, higher costs and depreciation of the rupee would lead to lower economic growth; (d) a downgrading of the credit rating of our commercial banks would reflect the sovereign credit rating which will make our international business difficult and more costly; (e) in view of the increased risk perception, Government, banks and businesses in Mauritius would inevitably face higher interest rates and new debt borrowing will become even more expensive, if you get the loan. Madam Speaker, let me remind the House that these consequences would have had ripple effects on the population at large. A large proportion of the non-resident deposits in the banking system are very sensitive to the investment grade. A downgrade could trigger a significant capital outflow which will destabilise the forex market, that remains under pressure in spite of the improvement of our external balance and the regular interventions of the Bank of Mauritius. This would put additional pressure on the value of the rupee, which would in turn increase prices significantly, affecting the purchasing power and living standard of the population. The Macroeconomic Coordination Committee, which comprises representatives of the Prime Minister’s Office, the Ministry of Finance, the Bank of Mauritius, Statistics Mauritius and the Economic Development Board, is closely monitoring developments related to our sovereign credit rating. The Committee has also undertaken various scenario analysis and stress testing to assess potential risks and policy responses. Mauritius remains under the close scrutiny of Moody’s. The Government is doing everything within its powers to prevent a further downgrade to junk status. Madam Speaker, allow me to make a point regarding Standard and Poor’s (S&P), which is another grading agency. In February 2023, the previous Minister of Finance had requested the Bank of Mauritius to enter directly into a contract with S&P to carry out a second sovereign credit rating for Mauritius. The file was being handled by the very special adviser at the level of the Bank of Mauritius. There are no official records at the Ministry of Finance for such a request. As a matter of principle, Madam Speaker, the sovereign credit rating is the responsibility of Government through the Ministry of Finance. The contract was not renewed in March of this year due to the fact that there are no immediate plans for the Government to tap the international debt markets. You did two sovereign credit ratings for tapping the international debt markets. The House may wish to note that S&P published its first sovereign credit rating for Mauritius on 21 July 2023, and the most recent one was published on 27 October 2025 with a rating of BBB negative, stable outlook. The BBB negative rating is the lowest rating at investment grade. This was not as some people are trying say, especially from the MSM. We know who they are. They are trying to say it is a pre-emptive strike to avoid scrutiny, contrary to the false narrative that is being peddled. It is not at all the case, as I have explained, Madam Speaker. Madam Speaker, I must say something else. We have embarked on a difficult, yet necessary, fiscal consolidation with last year’s budget, strengthened governance of key institutions and upgraded our data dissemination standards to the IMF’s SDDS Plus. We are the first country in Africa to attain that level. The IMF has highlighted in its communiqué, and let me quote, Madam Speaker – “By adhering to the SDDS Plus, Mauritius meets the most rigorous standards for the dissemination of essential macroeconomic and [fiscal] data on the state of the economy and its financial linkages, as established in the IMF’s Data Standards Initiatives. This achievement underscores the country’s [that is, Mauritius] strong commitment to data transparency vis-à-vis the public, markets, and the international community.” In addition, the Government has sought and received technical assistance, earlier this year, from the IMF on fiscal responsibility frameworks. All these actions signal the Government’s strong commitment to anchoring fiscal discipline in cementing the reputation of Mauritius as a credible investment grade jurisdiction for international visitors. Madam Speaker, to end, I should also add that given the situation as it is, we will continue to monitor and implement our fiscal consolidation programme to gradually bring down the budget deficit and public debt to sustainable levels. We need to rebuild the economy first in order to firmly place it on a higher growth path while ensuring that the benefits are shared across the whole of the population.
Okay. Yes, you are alright? Now, hon. Lobine! MASCARENE PLATEAU REGION – EXTENDED CONTINENTAL SHELF – JOINT MANAGEMENT AREA